By Javier Perez and Abel Anguiano
Overview of Mexico in World Cup Qualifiers
Mexico has always been expected to finish between the first two spots in World Cup qualifying. Nevertheless, Mexico started off with a rocky tempo. A frustrated win against Jamaica in the Azteca set the tone for Mexico’s campaign.
El Profe Martino’s side went the rest of the campaign without making a solid statement. When it came to the Azteca, Mexico was able to only gain a point from both of the toughest opponents in CONCACAF; the USMNT and Canada. In both Cincinnati and Edmonton, Mexico was uninspiring with 2 losses in both games. Out of the top 3, Mexico scored the least amount of goals (17) and was 2nd best in goals conceded (8). 5 of those goals conceded came from the USMNT and Canada.
As for the rest of the teams, Mexico’s away record kept them afloat throughout the campaign. Winning 4 away games, they were the best visiting team in the qualifiers.
Coaching Situation – Does Mexico benefit from sacking Tata?
All it takes is 30 seconds on any of the Mexican National Team’s social media accounts to realize that Gerardo “Tata” Martino is not very popular with the fans.
It has been three years now since Tata was appointed manager of the Mexican National Team. In those three years, the squad has played 52 games under his reign and won 37. That is a win percentage of 71% if you include wins from games that went to extra time or penalties.
There are some notable stretches of games that the Argentine manager can boast about, like his first seven games in charge where the team won all, taking down South American nations like Chile and Ecuador. From October to November 2020, Mexico took down the Netherlands, South Korea, and Japan in friendlies.
Silverware did not shy away from Mexico either. Under Tata, Mexico took home the 2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup, defeating the United States 1:0 in the final.
The problems did not rise until 2021 when Mexico opened the year with a 1:0 loss against Wales in a March friendly. Only three months later, Mexico falls 3:2 to the United States in the 2021 CONCACAF Nations League final.
For the rest of 2021, there were no impressive displays from Mexico (save for beating Nigeria 4-0). The team went on to lose another cup final to USA in August. In fact, Mexico has not beaten the USMNT since 2019.
Dry, low-effort football is what has inspired fans’ dislike for Tata, and the calls for his sacking have never been louder. But does Tata deserve to be sacked just months before the 2022 World Cup?
Let’s compare him to his predecessor Juan Carlos Osorio, who managed Mexico up until the team was eliminated from the 2018 World Cup.
As of the publishing of this article, both managers are level in games played (52 each). In those games, Osorio managed a 63% win record with more memorable losses (to teams such as Jamaica, Honduras, Sweden, and Brasil) as opposed to the win that almost redeemed his time with El Tri (that group stage win against Germany in the 2018 World Cup).
Tata is at an advantage here in terms of wins, but both their playing styles are questioned. Osorio tended to rotate lineups “far too much” and experimented with players in different positions. Tata seems to do the opposite. The team is too concrete and lacks new faces.
So… which is it? What philosophy does Mexico actually benefit from?
It’s obviously far more complex than saying both managers are opposites. There is no guaranteed winning philosophy. But is it actually Tata’s methods that don’t spark the team?
The argument for the sacking of Tata consists of uninspiring tactics and bad lineups. However, there are a few holes here.
On March 25, Mexico played the United States in World Cup qualifiers. The lineup was favorable, both to fans and in terms of power. The game saw an appearance from Johan Vasquez and solidified Mexico’s defense. Not only that, but Mexico managed to get to the final third many times, so the attacking idea was in place.
The game ended 0-0. Tata seemed to have corrected his mistakes; a good lineup and an attacking state of mind. Yet, it was the players who could not convert. You cannot blame a coach for the individual battles of a player in their natural position.
Sacking Tata is a risky move. The alternative is a coach that has little time to organize a World Cup team. However, there were signs of hope for the Argentine in the following qualifier against El Salvador. That hope came in the form of Uriel Antuna. A player that always delivers for the team, it is a wonder why his playing time is so limited. A foundation is there, and we have seen what the team is capable of accomplishing against non-CONCACAF opponents.
If, and only if more efficient players are called up, then there is a chance for Mexico to make a favorable impression in Qatar under Tata Martino.
Tweaking the Roster
One of the more polarizing players when it comes to the topic of call ups is Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez. The historic top scorer for Mexico has been lighting up MLS with the Galaxy with 5 goals in 6 games so far. This stat comes at a time when El Tri’s front three consisting of Hirving Lozano, Raul Jimenez, and Jesus Corona has suffered from a lack of goals in World Cup Qualifying.
Although Martino’s call-ups are often criticized, his list for the upcoming friendly versus Guatemala is nothing short of spectacular. David Ochoa and Carlos Acevedo provide refreshing new faces to the lineup of goalkeepers. Players like Erik Lira, Luis Olivas, and Zendejas have received much-deserved call-ups. The biggest names are Jonathan Gomez who is caught in a deadlock between the USMNT and Mexico and Marcelo Flores, who continues to rise through Arsenal’s rank and seems to be on the verge of a Premier League debut.
Another of Mexico’s glaring problems is the age of the squad. With an average of 29 years, Tata Martino should look to call in younger players. Liga MX and MLS have been full of young promises that are hungry for a call-up. The most glaring one being Cruz Azul’s Santiago Gimenez, who has been more effective than his compatriot Henry Martin. Young stars in Liga MX like Jeremy Marquez and Haret Ortega sit on the edge of a much-deserved Mexico call-up.
The inclusion of 4 goalkeepers in the squad list every qualifying window has been a head-scratcher for everyone. Jonathan Orozco stands as one of the most scored-on goalkeepers in the league. Up until Carlos Acevedo’s much-deserved call-up, the goalkeepers were amongst the oldest players in the squad.
As for the don’ts, Jesus Gallardo’s performances for Mexico’s qualifying campaign have been far from the level necessary to provide quality services to the backline. His defensive errors and inability to secure a transition into attacking have made the left flank a vulnerability for Mexico. With fewer games, Gerardo Arteaga has proven to be Mexico’s starting left-back. Players like Omar Campos are turning heads for a call-up in the left back spot as well.
CONCACAF has exponentially grown. The competition is quicker, smarter, more talented, and the most tactically inept it’s ever been. There are players in Mexico’s current squad that prove to be a liability when facing those opponents. Luis Romo and ‘Cata’ Dominguez come to mind. Their slow pace hinders Mexico’s ability to effectively defend and control the midfield against younger, more physically able opponents.
When we inevitably face Argentina, Poland, and Saudi Arabia in Qatar, we will want to make sure the squad has sufficient quality in depth to be able to come clean off the group stage.
Realistic goals for Mexico before Qatar
Before heading to Qatar, Mexico has seven opponents to face in friendlies: Guatemala, Nigeria, Uruguay, Ecuador, Paraguay, Brazil, and Peru. A CONCACAF opponent, an AFCON powerhouse, and five complicated South American squads.
Tata Martino actually finds himself in a favorable situation. Guatemala is the perfect game to test out new players in his system, which seems to be his thought process when looking at the recently released roster for that game. Nigeria is a tougher opponent, but a loss against them should not stain this run, as long as the new faces are playing and the team is scoring. While this doesn’t seem all that favorable, it is a good opportunity to see how those players are adapting to the team.
Mexico should expect a guaranteed win against Guatemala, no excuse. Guatemala is going to play their hearts out, so a blowout is not expected but the test serves Mexico great. Nigeria is going to present itself as the biggest challenge yet, but the game serves a different purpose other than to win. Realistically, Mexico can expect no losses from the first two games, but they should not be discouraged if Nigeria takes the win (as long as it was a hard-fought game, which it will likely be).
The CONMEBOL teams are more complicated. The last games must show that Mexico is ready for the World Cup. Sticking to the idea that new faces might be playing, Mexico can expect one or two losses from the five games. A tie in the mix is not out of the question either, but Mexico needs to win at least three to show they are ready.
Predicting which teams will defeat Mexico is difficult because it can be any of the three. However, Ecuador has a good chance of being one of them. While Uruguay is theoretically stronger, mind games come into play. Mexico with an underdog mentality tends to play like never before, so they have a chance against Uruguay. Ecuador is in a weird position because they are historically a worse team than Mexico, but they have qualified to Qatar and played great throughout the qualifiers. It is possible that Mexico underestimates them, especially if they beat Uruguay.
Paraguay should not pose that much of a threat, but again, mind games can affect the outcome of the game. This match might be the most unpredictable of all.
As for Brazil and Peru, a loss against Brazil is almost expected by Mexico fans, but coming back to the underdog mentality that was previously mentioned, there is a chance for Mexico to bring something positive out of the game, especially since it will be played in California. Nonetheless, this is a game against arguably the best national team in the world. At best, a tie is what Mexico can aim for, but a win is never out of the question for an underdog team.
The Peru match comes down as the most important match out of the seven. This is simply because it is the last one and it will set the mood for players and fans ahead of the World Cup. With Peru just barely securing a play-off spot to fight for the last slot in Qatar, Mexico comes face-to-face with a similar issue to Paraguay in that mind games can dictate the outcome. Another unpredictable match, but probably one of the most winnable. Despite the uncertainties, Mexico has the manpower to win its final friendly game.
Worst outcome: 1 win, 1 tie, 5 losses
Best outcome: 6 wins, 1 loss
Conclusion
Despite all these different factors that play into Mexico’s performances, they never shy away from creating the underdog storyline in the World Cup. In fact, punching above their weight is something Mexico has done in the last 3 World Cups. El Tri has come from beating the likes of France and Germany in the group stage and drawing Brazil in that famous game at the Estadio Castelao in Fortaleza, Brazil. Martino’s mission is clear; make a memorable run in Qatar and set a new standard for Mexico in the World Cup. The summer will be a test of will for the boys. They will have to face seven opponents that will reveal their strengths and weaknesses before heading to Qatar.