Photo Credit: Ryan Fleming (IG: @ryanflemingmedia)
MLS Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference Semifinal
- Who: s – FC Cincinnati (20-5-9, 69 points) vs Philadelphia Union (15-10-9, 55 points)
- When: Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 8:00 PM EST
- Where: TQL Stadium – Cincinnati, OH, USA
- How To Watch: Apple TV – MLS Season Pass
2023 Matchups
- April 8, 2023: FC Cincinnati 1 (Acosta 69′ (Pen)) – Philadelphia Union 0
- September 16, 2023: Philadelphia Union 2 (Martinez 23′, Gazdag 37′ (Pen)) – FC Cincinnati 2 (Boupendza 49′, Vazquez 76′)
Déjà vu? FC Cincinnati’s first two matchups in the 2023 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs are awfully similar to last year. A first round matchup against the New York Red Bulls, where the Orange and Blue eliminated the Red Bulls in Harrison, NJ before a 1-seed vs 4/5-seed winner matchup between FC Cincinnati and the Philadelphia Union. The main difference? FC Cincinnati are the first seed this time around and play host to Jim Curtin’s Union side.
Looking at Jim Curtin’s side, the Union will be without the services of the German fullback Kai Wagner (VAHg-ner), as he’s been suspended 3 matches for violating the league’s on-field anti-discrimination policy on October 28th. At this time, there’s still some doubt to the availability of Philadelphia’s Jakob Glesnes, who had surgery two weeks ago after he was dealing with a sports hernia. Glesnes was originally thought to be out for the season, but Curtin’s remark of his progress and the hint of his potential return in this year MLS Cup Playoffs might mean a cameo could be possible for the Norwegian defender. Unlike Glesnes, I would expect (at the time of writing…) Julian Carranza to be available for the Eastern Conference Semifinal after a mild hamstring injury left him off the matchday roster in Foxborough on Wednesday, November 8. (UPDATE 11/20 – Julian Carranza rejoined full team training for the Philadelphia Union on the 16th.)
The Union have come out in a back three/five both times against Pat Noonan’s side this season. Now without Glesnes and Wagner, the question becomes if a back three is even possible with the personnel. Curtin put Nathan Harriel as the LCB against the Orange and Blue in Philadelphia this season, and also had fullbacks/wingbacks of Oilvier Mbaizo and Matthew Real. We’ll use that as a reference for what the lineup could look like for Jim Curtin’s side in Cincinnati. I do still think Philadelphia prefers to mirror Cincinnati’s 3-4-1-2 as much as possible when the two sides face off, so it’s question of who slots in where.
Assuming the backline ends up looking something like (from left to right): Real, Lowe, Elliott, Harriel, and Mbaizo, they’ll be tested heavily by both Santiago Arias and Álvaro Barreal in the wide areas. Oh, and the MVP frontrunner Luciano Acosta has had extra time to recover from his heel that’s been causing him some pain for months. If Real ends up starting at LCB in a back 3/5, that could be an incredibly favorable matchup for the former Atlético fullback Santiago Arias, assuming he’s good to go. Arias picked up a knock in training after receiving another call-up to the Colombian National Team, leading to the club turning down the call-up. With Powell and Arias both nursing injuries at the time of writing, the matchups on the right (right side for Cincinnati) channel for both teams remains uncertain for now. (UPDATE 11/20 – As of last week, Santiago Arias remained a non-participant in training. His availability for Saturday’s match seems uncertain at the moment.)
The Union’s attacking trio of Julian Carranza, Mikael Uhre (oo-Wah), and Daniel Gazdag had another productive season in 2023. 37 goals (Carranza 14, Gazdag 14, Uhre 9) and 21 assists (Gazdag 11, Carranza 6, Uhre 4) in MLS Regular Season play for the trio. But outside of the three, there haven’t been plenty of goals – Jose Martinez is the fourth highest goal scorer with 3, and Alejandro Bedoya is tied with the suspended Kai Wagner with 7 assists (second most for Philadelphia) this season.
Unsurprisingly, Andre Blake had another strong season this year. He finished fourth in MLS in Goals Prevented (my personal favorite GK stat). Goals prevented is the xGOT (expected goals on target a goalkeeper faces) minus the goals conceded. Blake’s 3.8 ranked behind San Jose’s Daniel (9.8), St. Louis’ Roman Bürki (9.1), and former New England Revolution (and current Chelsea) goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic (5.2).
For FC Cincinnati (at the time of writing), Matt Miazga, the 2023 MLS Defender of the Year, is suspended for this fixture for yellow card accumulation. I’ve been told by sources that FC Cincinnati did not appeal the suspension (UPDATE: I’ve now been told by the league that the offense was not appealable.), and his interaction with PRO referees after the conclusion of the match (brought to light days after the event by the PRSA – Professional Soccer Referees Association) is still under investigation by Major League Soccer. (UPDATE 11/20 – Matt Miazga was available to the media after training last week, but would not go into the suspension/investigation. When about his 2023 MLS Defender of the Year award, Miazga was quick to note that “the most important thing is winning trophies as a team”.)
Without Miazga, FC Cincinnati will also have to shuffle their backline. Likely, Yerson Mosquera slides inside to the central CB role, and Raymon Gaddis goes in as the RCB. Alvas Powell is making progress on his recovery from his leg injury that kept him out of Round One in its entirety. Nick Hagglund underwent successful hamstring surgery on November 7th in London, ruling him out for the season. London Aghedo continues to make progress in his recovery from a leg injury, and Joey Akpunonu has trained well with the first team as an additional center-back option, but Aghedo has yet to make his MLS debut and Akpunonu has played 8 total minutes in the MLS this season, and it’s unlikely they’ll play a significant role against Philadelphia. Not ideal for them to be thrust into this high-leverage situation with minimal experience.
Uhre’s an interesting matchup for this backline without Miazga. You know what you’re getting from Julian Carranza and Gazdag who play very direct. Uhre operates best in space. Uhre assisted the lone goal against FC Cincinnati last year in the Eastern Conference Semifinal in Philadelphia, where he held up play and slipped through Leon Flach. If Uhre plays on the right side of the pitch, you’re reliant on Ian Murphy pressing high, jamming him at the first touch and not allowing him space to operate. That works. I do fear that on the right side, especially if Gaddis starts on the right, that he’ll have enough space to operate and cause chaos. You also can’t let him make runs that pull apart the defense… whether that means he receives the ball on that run to get a shot/assist, or it creates that space for Carranza or Gazdag to run into (think Jaime Tartt acting as the decoy in Ted Lasso for Sam Obisanya). If you find a way to not allow Uhre to find the ball in space, and communicate well on the backline, FC Cincinnati should be able to find success defensively. Uhre has 29 total touches in the last matchup, going 0/1 on dribbles and 0/1 on crosses. 3 of his 4 shots/chances in front of goal came from corners, and his only shot from regular play was blocked.
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